Prediksi Stok Sparepart Alat Komunikasi di Polda Jawa
Timur Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
Nurcahyanti, Nana Aprilia
Abdurrasyid, Abdurrasyid
Sudirman, M. Yoga Distra
Abdurrasyid, Abdurrasyid
Sudirman, M. Yoga Distra
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-27 02:30:32
Abstract :
IT sector of Polda Jawa Timur is a part of regional police institution of East Java that has a job in Information Technology and communication sector. If there?s any damage report about communication equipments, IT sector of Polda Jawa Timur will do the damage checking and its requirement analysis so what kind of maintenance and spareparts that are needed will be provided by IT sector. However, the planning system of spareparts stock supplying is just by conventional estimation. So it sometimes may cause the lack of stock that may cause the maintenance treatment comes lately. And if the stock is exceed, it cause improper financial management so the systematic prediction application is needed to solve this problem. Based on this research, by using Single Exponential Smoothing method in range 0 to 1, has found various alpha weights based on the lowest MSE values for each item. 3 samples of item predictions were taken and the system has shown that 0.7 is chosen as the best alpha of Rotatory Switch prediction with MSE value 8.6626863. for Speaker prediction, 0.8 is the best alpha with 9.486565 as its MSE value. and for IC Regulator prediction, 0.1 is the best alpha with MSE value 5.057488.
IT sector of Polda Jawa Timur is a part of regional police institution of East Java that has a job in Information Technology and communication sector. If there?s any damage report about communication equipments, IT sector of Polda Jawa Timur will do the damage checking and its requirement analysis so what kind of maintenance and spareparts that are needed will be provided by IT sector. However, the planning system of spareparts stock supplying is just by conventional estimation. So it sometimes may cause the lack of stock that may cause the maintenance treatment comes lately. And if the stock is exceed, it cause improper financial management so the systematic prediction application is needed to solve this problem. Based on this research, by using Single Exponential Smoothing method in range 0 to 1, has found various alpha weights based on the lowest MSE values for each item. 3 samples of item predictions were taken and the system has shown that 0.7 is chosen as the best alpha of Rotatory Switch prediction with MSE value 8.6626863. for Speaker prediction, 0.8 is the best alpha with 9.486565 as its MSE value. and for IC Regulator prediction, 0.1 is the best alpha with MSE value 5.057488.
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