IMPLEMENTASI METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES UNTUK PERAMALAN BEBAN LISTRIK JANGKA MENENGAH BERBASIS WEB.
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
Sukmasari, Made Dwi Aristyanti
Luqman, Luqman
Susanti, Meilia Nur Indah
Luqman, Luqman
Susanti, Meilia Nur Indah
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-26 07:02:59
Abstract :
Bali as a tourist destination leads to the increase of electricity demand. From that fact, a comparison test was conducted on January 2018 to December 2019 to identify the realization of the peak load based on the forecast data. This thesis uses forecast calculations using the fuzzy time series method, the interval has been determined at the beginning of the calculation process. The length of the interval can affect the process of fuzzy relationship which cause a difference in the forecasting results. The results show that the fuzzy time series method based on the average interval in 2018 with AFER 4.53%, MSE 1335.09, and in 2019 the AFER value is 4.08% with MSE value of 1546.05 better than the coefficient forecasting method which conducted by PT PLN (Persero) UP2B Bali in 2018 with AFER value of 18 7.134%, 4742.42 MSE value, and the AFER in 2019 is 7.840% with MSE of 6234.83.
Bali as a tourist destination leads to the increase of electricity demand. From that fact, a comparison test was conducted on January 2018 to December 2019 to identify the realization of the peak load based on the forecast data. This thesis uses forecast calculations using the fuzzy time series method, the interval has been determined at the beginning of the calculation process. The length of the interval can affect the process of fuzzy relationship which cause a difference in the forecasting results. The results show that the fuzzy time series method based on the average interval in 2018 with AFER 4.53%, MSE 1335.09, and in 2019 the AFER value is 4.08% with MSE value of 1546.05 better than the coefficient forecasting method which conducted by PT PLN (Persero) UP2B Bali in 2018 with AFER value of 18 7.134%, 4742.42 MSE value, and the AFER in 2019 is 7.840% with MSE of 6234.83.
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