Perancangan Aplikasi Prediksi Jumlah Calon Mahasiswa Baru Yang Mendaftar Menggunakan Metode Single Exponentiala Smoothing ( Studi Kasus : Universitas Samudra)
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
Putri, Maudika Indah
NIngrum, Rahma Farah
Widiyanto, Max Teja Ajie Cipta
NIngrum, Rahma Farah
Widiyanto, Max Teja Ajie Cipta
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-26 07:01:48
Abstract :
Every year, Samudra University opens registration for freshmen with 3 ways, namely SNMPTN, SBMPTN and SMMPTN, each way from each Faculty has a limited quota, if one path chosen does not fully fill the quota, it will be added to the next way. From each Faculty with different enthusiasts, there is an increase and decrease in registration, which cause the staff is not being able to know how many freshmen will register in new academic years. Hence an application was made to predict the number of freshmen who registered, by the Single Exponential Smoothing method to improve the quality and accreditation of campus education to the number of applicants and make it way easier for staff who will prepare for freshmen admissions later. The use of Single Exponential Smoothing Method to predict the number of freshmen in this study uses data of the freshmen candidates from 2014 to 2019. Then the calculation is carried out using the single exponential smoothing method and assisted by the MSE (Mean Square Error) method in calculating the smallest error value, it is found that the average smallest error value is obtained at the smaller alpha value.
Every year, Samudra University opens registration for freshmen with 3 ways, namely SNMPTN, SBMPTN and SMMPTN, each way from each Faculty has a limited quota, if one path chosen does not fully fill the quota, it will be added to the next way. From each Faculty with different enthusiasts, there is an increase and decrease in registration, which cause the staff is not being able to know how many freshmen will register in new academic years. Hence an application was made to predict the number of freshmen who registered, by the Single Exponential Smoothing method to improve the quality and accreditation of campus education to the number of applicants and make it way easier for staff who will prepare for freshmen admissions later. The use of Single Exponential Smoothing Method to predict the number of freshmen in this study uses data of the freshmen candidates from 2014 to 2019. Then the calculation is carried out using the single exponential smoothing method and assisted by the MSE (Mean Square Error) method in calculating the smallest error value, it is found that the average smallest error value is obtained at the smaller alpha value.
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