Aplikasi Sistem Peramalan Persediaan Obat Di Rumah Sakit Umum Pusat Dr.Mohammad Hoesin Palembang Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
Saputra, Arief Eka
Wulandari, Dewi Arianti
Fitriani, Yessy
Wulandari, Dewi Arianti
Fitriani, Yessy
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-23 03:09:05
Abstract :
Dr. Mohammad Hoesin General Hospital is a hospital in Palembang South Sumatera. The hospital is in need of forecasting in the stock preparation of drugs that will come out in the future periods to avoid excess or deficiency in the supply of medicinal amounts. The parameters are used to predict the stock inventory of the drug with a value of ? (alpha) constants 0.15. In the Exponential Smoothing method is done a comparison in determining the alpha value, by looking for the alpha value as a trial/random until it finds an alpha that has a minimum error, search for error value using the RMSE (Root Mean) method Squared Error) and determination of accuracy using MAPE. So forecasting results that have the alpha with the most minimised error value that will be selected into forecasting for the next period. Forecasting system of drug inventory using Exponential Smoothing method only predicts one period and future period. At the test stage of the sample was obtained that the forecasting of drug supply in the drug 5 fluorouracil vial in January 2018 amounted to forecast 116, an RMSE error calculation with a value of 9.25. MAPE calculation value is 0.06 and the accuracy value is 99.9%.
Dr. Mohammad Hoesin General Hospital is a hospital in Palembang South Sumatera. The hospital is in need of forecasting in the stock preparation of drugs that will come out in the future periods to avoid excess or deficiency in the supply of medicinal amounts. The parameters are used to predict the stock inventory of the drug with a value of ? (alpha) constants 0.15. In the Exponential Smoothing method is done a comparison in determining the alpha value, by looking for the alpha value as a trial/random until it finds an alpha that has a minimum error, search for error value using the RMSE (Root Mean) method Squared Error) and determination of accuracy using MAPE. So forecasting results that have the alpha with the most minimised error value that will be selected into forecasting for the next period. Forecasting system of drug inventory using Exponential Smoothing method only predicts one period and future period. At the test stage of the sample was obtained that the forecasting of drug supply in the drug 5 fluorouracil vial in January 2018 amounted to forecast 116, an RMSE error calculation with a value of 9.25. MAPE calculation value is 0.06 and the accuracy value is 99.9%.
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