PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI PERSEDIAAN OBAT DI RS AL-HUDA
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
Putri, Zerlina Jessica
Karmila, sely
Sikumbang, Hengki
Karmila, sely
Sikumbang, Hengki
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-22 03:51:43
Abstract :
Drug supply prediction is one way to determine future drug purchases. In addition, the purpose of stock forecasting in order to avoid vacuum and excess stock of drugs. Because if there is stockpile will affect the number of purchases or reorder in the next month. In this study the prediction of drug stock at AlHuda Hospital using double exponential smoothing forecasting method. Historical data calculated using double exponential smoothing method is stock of drug data in 2017 from May to May 2018. In accordance with the researched stock data in Al-Huda Hospital has plot trend data up and down, after going through the prediction process will be tested error in prediction. To perform the prediction test is done by calculating the percentage error and the mean absolute percentage error. MAPE with alpha 0.6 is worth 20%. The smallest MAPE between alpha 0.1 until 0.9 will be used for forecasting.
Drug supply prediction is one way to determine future drug purchases. In addition, the purpose of stock forecasting in order to avoid vacuum and excess stock of drugs. Because if there is stockpile will affect the number of purchases or reorder in the next month. In this study the prediction of drug stock at AlHuda Hospital using double exponential smoothing forecasting method. Historical data calculated using double exponential smoothing method is stock of drug data in 2017 from May to May 2018. In accordance with the researched stock data in Al-Huda Hospital has plot trend data up and down, after going through the prediction process will be tested error in prediction. To perform the prediction test is done by calculating the percentage error and the mean absolute percentage error. MAPE with alpha 0.6 is worth 20%. The smallest MAPE between alpha 0.1 until 0.9 will be used for forecasting.
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