PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (DES) PADA APLIKASI PREDIKSI BEBAN LISTRIK JANGKA PENDEK BERDASARKAN KEBUTUHAN LISTRIK PELANGGAN (STUDI KASUS : PT. PLN (PERSERO) AREA CENGKARENG)
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
SUMARNI, MEILLY
Yosrita, Efy
Haris, Abdul
Yosrita, Efy
Haris, Abdul
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-22 03:31:00
Abstract :
PT. PLN (Persero) which is the only provider of electricity available in Indonesia often experience problems resulting from errors in determining the amount of electrical charges that must be prepared to meet the electricity needs of customers, because there is no method used in determining the electrical load. Therefore, an electric load prediction was developed using the double exponential smoothing method to assist in determining the electrical load requirement and the mean absolute percentage error method to calculate the smallest error of prediction which means the calculation result with the highest accuracy and the lowest error value of 3,93% for customer prediction and 0,01% for power prediction connected. Testing system used in this research is by black box method and user acceptance test with got quality calculation result 0.000627 and calculation function point (FP) equal to 69,9975.
PT. PLN (Persero) which is the only provider of electricity available in Indonesia often experience problems resulting from errors in determining the amount of electrical charges that must be prepared to meet the electricity needs of customers, because there is no method used in determining the electrical load. Therefore, an electric load prediction was developed using the double exponential smoothing method to assist in determining the electrical load requirement and the mean absolute percentage error method to calculate the smallest error of prediction which means the calculation result with the highest accuracy and the lowest error value of 3,93% for customer prediction and 0,01% for power prediction connected. Testing system used in this research is by black box method and user acceptance test with got quality calculation result 0.000627 and calculation function point (FP) equal to 69,9975.
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