PREDIKSI JUMLAH KASUS HARIAN COVID-19 DI DKI JAKARTA BERDASARKAN JUMLAH POSITIF, SEMBUH DAN MENINGGAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
PRATAMA, ALVY NILENDRA
Palupiningsih, Pritasari
Palupiningsih, Pritasari
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-20 03:02:17
Abstract :
Covid-19 is a type of infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus or known as the Corona virus which attacks the human respiratory system. The high number of daily confirmed cases of being infected with this virus has an effect on all lines, especially those who are directly involved in helping to deal with the high spike in cases due to this virus, such as medical personnel and officers for the relocation and burial of Covid- 19 bodies. The purpose of this research is to build a system that can help medical personnel and officers of relocation and burial of Covid-19 bodies to estimate the daily number of Covid-19 cases based on the daily number of positives, recoveries and deaths in DKI Jakarta. The method used is Single Moving Average. This Single Moving Average method is based on time series, which is a model that predicts future possibilities based on the average trend of past history. The results of the calculations using the Single Moving Average method from the data that has been obtained get predictions regarding the number of positive, recovered and died for the next day and based on the forecasting model used to get forecast error results for predicting the number of positive, recovered and died with MFE (Mean Forecast) values Error) respectively -7.6; -8.4 and -0.1. The MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) values are 385.5, respectively; 523.4 and 9.7. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values are 34.9% respectively; 35.9% and 37.5%.
Covid-19 is a type of infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus or known as the Corona virus which attacks the human respiratory system. The high number of daily confirmed cases of being infected with this virus has an effect on all lines, especially those who are directly involved in helping to deal with the high spike in cases due to this virus, such as medical personnel and officers for the relocation and burial of Covid- 19 bodies. The purpose of this research is to build a system that can help medical personnel and officers of relocation and burial of Covid-19 bodies to estimate the daily number of Covid-19 cases based on the daily number of positives, recoveries and deaths in DKI Jakarta. The method used is Single Moving Average. This Single Moving Average method is based on time series, which is a model that predicts future possibilities based on the average trend of past history. The results of the calculations using the Single Moving Average method from the data that has been obtained get predictions regarding the number of positive, recovered and died for the next day and based on the forecasting model used to get forecast error results for predicting the number of positive, recovered and died with MFE (Mean Forecast) values Error) respectively -7.6; -8.4 and -0.1. The MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) values are 385.5, respectively; 523.4 and 9.7. MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) values are 34.9% respectively; 35.9% and 37.5%.
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