IMPLEMENTASI METODE SES (SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING) PADA STOK BUBUK KOPI (STUDI KASUS: ARANE KOPI)
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
RAMA, THERESIA WELLY
Widiyanto, Max Teja Ajie Cipta
Ningrum, Rahma Farah
Widiyanto, Max Teja Ajie Cipta
Ningrum, Rahma Farah
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-20 03:07:32
Abstract :
Arane Kopi is one of the shops in Lampung. Currently the processing of data on Arane Coffee is recorded manually using books. Application is a group of files that aim to perform certain interrelated activities so that there needs to be data storage and forecasting applications on the stock of coffee grounds to be sold using the Single Exponential Smoothing method which is useful to increase profits and avoid excess or disadvantage. The parameters or alpha used in forecasting coffee grounds stock in the Single Exponential Smoothing method are alpha 0.1 - 0.9 trial/random until finding an alpha that has a minimum error by searching using the MSE (Mean Square Error) method. Then the forecasting results that have alpha with the minimum error value will be selected as forecasting for the next period. The coffee grounds stock forecasting system using the Single Exponenial Smoothing method can only predict one period ahead. At the sample test stage it was obtained that the forecasting of coffee grounds stock at Wine200gr for 2022 was at alpha 0.9 which is worth 359.7530 if rounded 360.
Arane Kopi is one of the shops in Lampung. Currently the processing of data on Arane Coffee is recorded manually using books. Application is a group of files that aim to perform certain interrelated activities so that there needs to be data storage and forecasting applications on the stock of coffee grounds to be sold using the Single Exponential Smoothing method which is useful to increase profits and avoid excess or disadvantage. The parameters or alpha used in forecasting coffee grounds stock in the Single Exponential Smoothing method are alpha 0.1 - 0.9 trial/random until finding an alpha that has a minimum error by searching using the MSE (Mean Square Error) method. Then the forecasting results that have alpha with the minimum error value will be selected as forecasting for the next period. The coffee grounds stock forecasting system using the Single Exponenial Smoothing method can only predict one period ahead. At the sample test stage it was obtained that the forecasting of coffee grounds stock at Wine200gr for 2022 was at alpha 0.9 which is worth 359.7530 if rounded 360.
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