SISTEM PERAMALAN TINGKAT KEMISKINAN PENDUDUK DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING PADA KABUPATEN POLEWALI MANDAR
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
JAYA, ANDI AKRAM
Fitriani, Yessy
Djamain, Yasni
Fitriani, Yessy
Djamain, Yasni
Subject
Teknik Informatika
Datestamp
2022-09-20 03:09:18
Abstract :
One of the important aspects in supporting poverty alleviation strategies is the availability of targeted poverty data and reliable poverty measures that can be a powerful tool for policy makers. Poverty data can be used to assess government poverty reduction policies, compare poverty over time and regions, and target the poor to improve their situation. This study uses historical data on population poverty in Polewali Mandar Regency which aims to predict the poverty level of the population in the future so that it can assist the Central Statistics Agency and related government agencies in formulating strategies to alleviate population poverty. The result of this research is the application of population poverty forecasting by applying the Double Exponential Smoothing method to the system. By calculating the smoothing value, constant value, and trend value in the historical data of population poverty so that it can produce forecasting data for the following year. By paying attention to the level of accuracy of the forecasting results using the MAPE method, the forecasting accuracy rate is 97%, which means that the results of forecasting carried out on population poverty data for the following year have very good accuracy.
One of the important aspects in supporting poverty alleviation strategies is the availability of targeted poverty data and reliable poverty measures that can be a powerful tool for policy makers. Poverty data can be used to assess government poverty reduction policies, compare poverty over time and regions, and target the poor to improve their situation. This study uses historical data on population poverty in Polewali Mandar Regency which aims to predict the poverty level of the population in the future so that it can assist the Central Statistics Agency and related government agencies in formulating strategies to alleviate population poverty. The result of this research is the application of population poverty forecasting by applying the Double Exponential Smoothing method to the system. By calculating the smoothing value, constant value, and trend value in the historical data of population poverty so that it can produce forecasting data for the following year. By paying attention to the level of accuracy of the forecasting results using the MAPE method, the forecasting accuracy rate is 97%, which means that the results of forecasting carried out on population poverty data for the following year have very good accuracy.
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