ANALISIS PERAMALAN BEBAN HARIAN PADA GARDU INDUK DEPOK BARU MENGGUNAKAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA)
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Institusion
Institut Teknologi Perusahaan Listrik Negara
Author
Arba Aziz, Fahaz
Oktaviana Putri, Tri Wahyu
Oktaviana Putri, Tri Wahyu
Subject
Teknik Elektro
Datestamp
2022-10-11 03:52:21
Abstract :
Electrical energy is currently very much needed by all people, electrical energy is also very useful for many aspects of life, therefore it is very necessary to have a qualified distribution of electrical energy so that consumers of electrical energy can be served properly. Before the electric power is distributed to the distribution network, the electrical power is first lowered through the substation where this substation will lower the voltage from 500kv to 20kv for further electrical power is distributed to the distribution network. This substation serves the number of feeders where each feeder is distributed 20kv each with different loads. The total load of this number of feeders varies each day. From the difference in daily load at this substation, this study discusses daily load forecasting at the substation where the data for the substation used is Depok Baru substation. The data used is daily load data from January to April. This forecasting uses the autoregressive integrated moving average method or what is called ARIMA. To determine the accuracy of the forecasting results, the mean absolute percentage error method or the so-called MAPE method is used, where the forecasting results are compared with real data and the percentage error calculated from the ARIMA method is calculated. From the data processing, the forecasting results showed that the MAPE results were 0.01968 which indicated that the forecasting results were accurate.
Electrical energy is currently very much needed by all people, electrical energy is also very useful for many aspects of life, therefore it is very necessary to have a qualified distribution of electrical energy so that consumers of electrical energy can be served properly. Before the electric power is distributed to the distribution network, the electrical power is first lowered through the substation where this substation will lower the voltage from 500kv to 20kv for further electrical power is distributed to the distribution network. This substation serves the number of feeders where each feeder is distributed 20kv each with different loads. The total load of this number of feeders varies each day. From the difference in daily load at this substation, this study discusses daily load forecasting at the substation where the data for the substation used is Depok Baru substation. The data used is daily load data from January to April. This forecasting uses the autoregressive integrated moving average method or what is called ARIMA. To determine the accuracy of the forecasting results, the mean absolute percentage error method or the so-called MAPE method is used, where the forecasting results are compared with real data and the percentage error calculated from the ARIMA method is calculated. From the data processing, the forecasting results showed that the MAPE results were 0.01968 which indicated that the forecasting results were accurate.
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