EFEKTIVITAS SISTEM PERSENTASE EKTRAKSI EMAS UNTUK MENENTUKAN TARGET PRODUKSI DENGAN PENDEKATAN METODE PERAMALAN DI PT. ABC
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Institusion
Universitas Mercu Buana
Author
SARASWATI, RIANA DIAN
Subject
025.344 Machine-Readable Materials/Bahan yang Dapat Dibaca Mesin
Datestamp
2020-05-05 05:05:58
Abstract :
PT. ABC is a gold mining company located in North Kalimantan. Gold processing method applied in PT. ABC is heap leaching. Gold produced is fluctuates and under budget term so it could be losses for the company. Gold produced is fluctuates and under company production target. It causes losses to the company. Actual gold production under a target production can be caused by error at forecasting the percentage of gold extraction. Further analysis is needed to improve the forecasting percentage of gold extraction so the best forecasting method is obtained. Forecasting methods used are Linear, Moving Average 3 Month, Moving Average 5 Month, and cycle. By comparing the forecasting method, the best forecasting method obtained is cycle forecasting method, because it has the lowest forecasting error value, by MAPE = 0.2307, MAD = 1.8778, MSE = 4.8758, MFE = -0.005. Based on the validity test using moving range, cycle method is valid, It can be seen by the values of validity testing using moving range within the control limits of 7.54231 and -7.54231.Keywords: Forecasting, Time Series, Percentage of gold extraction, Moving Range PT. ABC merupakan perusahaan tambang emas yang berlokasi di Kalimantan Utara. Metode pengolahan emas yang diterapkan diPT.ABCadalah metode heap leaching. Emas yang diproduksi bersifat fluktuatifdan berada dibawah target produksi yang ditentukan sehinggamenimbulkan kerugian bagi perusahaan. Aktual produksi emas yang di bawah target produksidapat disebabkan oleh kesalahan peramalan persentase ekstraksi emas. Analisis lebih lanjut diperlukan untuk memperbaiki peramalan persentase ekstraksi emas sehingga didapatkan metode peralaman terbaik. Metode peramalan yang digunakan yaituRegresi Linier,Moving Average 3 Bulan,Moving Average5 Bulan, dan siklus. Dengan membandingkan metode peramalan tersebut, didapatkan metode peramalan terbaik yaitumetode peramalan siklus, karena mempunyai nilai kesalahan peramalan paling kecil, dengan nilai MAPE = 0,2307 , MAD = 1,8775, MSE = 4,8758 , MFE = -0,005. Berdasarkan uji validitas dengan menggunakan moving rangediketahui bahwa metode siklus valid, terlihat dari nilai-nilai dari pengujian validitas moving rangeyang berada dalam batas kendali 7,54231 dan -7,54231.Kata Kunci : Peramalan, Time Series, Persentase Ekstrasi Emas,Moving Range
PT. ABC is a gold mining company located in North Kalimantan. Gold processing method applied in PT. ABC is heap leaching. Gold produced is fluctuates and under budget term so it could be losses for the company. Gold produced is fluctuates and under company production target. It causes losses to the company. Actual gold production under a target production can be caused by error at forecasting the percentage of gold extraction. Further analysis is needed to improve the forecasting percentage of gold extraction so the best forecasting method is obtained. Forecasting methods used are Linear, Moving Average 3 Month, Moving Average 5 Month, and cycle. By comparing the forecasting method, the best forecasting method obtained is cycle forecasting method, because it has the lowest forecasting error value, by MAPE = 0.2307, MAD = 1.8778, MSE = 4.8758, MFE = -0.005. Based on the validity test using moving range, cycle method is valid, It can be seen by the values of validity testing using moving range within the control limits of 7.54231 and -7.54231.Keywords: Forecasting, Time Series, Percentage of gold extraction, Moving Range PT. ABC merupakan perusahaan tambang emas yang berlokasi di Kalimantan Utara. Metode pengolahan emas yang diterapkan diPT.ABCadalah metode heap leaching. Emas yang diproduksi bersifat fluktuatifdan berada dibawah target produksi yang ditentukan sehinggamenimbulkan kerugian bagi perusahaan. Aktual produksi emas yang di bawah target produksidapat disebabkan oleh kesalahan peramalan persentase ekstraksi emas. Analisis lebih lanjut diperlukan untuk memperbaiki peramalan persentase ekstraksi emas sehingga didapatkan metode peralaman terbaik. Metode peramalan yang digunakan yaituRegresi Linier,Moving Average 3 Bulan,Moving Average5 Bulan, dan siklus. Dengan membandingkan metode peramalan tersebut, didapatkan metode peramalan terbaik yaitumetode peramalan siklus, karena mempunyai nilai kesalahan peramalan paling kecil, dengan nilai MAPE = 0,2307 , MAD = 1,8775, MSE = 4,8758 , MFE = -0,005. Berdasarkan uji validitas dengan menggunakan moving rangediketahui bahwa metode siklus valid, terlihat dari nilai-nilai dari pengujian validitas moving rangeyang berada dalam batas kendali 7,54231 dan -7,54231.Kata Kunci : Peramalan, Time Series, Persentase Ekstrasi Emas,Moving Range
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