HUBUNGAN PENERIMAAN PAJAK DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA MELALUI PENDEKATAN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL
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Institusion
Universitas Jambi
Author
Yossinomita, Yossinomita
Haryadi, Haryadi
Nainggolan, Saidin
Zulfanetti, Zulfanetti
Haryadi, Haryadi
Nainggolan, Saidin
Zulfanetti, Zulfanetti
Subject
HB Economic Theory
Datestamp
2024-02-19 04:07:03
Abstract :
ABSTRAK Menganalisis sifat hubungan sebab akibat antara penerimaan pajak dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam bentuk model ekonomi pertumbuhan endogen. Analisis kausalitas pada penelitian ini menggunakan pengaturan multivariat melalui pendekatan vektor autoregression dengan metode Toda?Yamamoto sebagai uji kausalitas. Dengan menggunakan data time series pada tahun 1983?2021, temuan penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel kontrol: modal, tenaga kerja, FDI, belanja pemerintah, inflasi, dan nilai tukar, menjelaskan hubungan kausalitas penerimaan pajak dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hasil uji kausalitas dengan metode Toda-Yamamoto menunjukkan terdapat hubungan kausalitas dua arah antara penerimaan pajak dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi, dengan nilai chi-squared sebesar 78.96730 dan probabilitas sangat nyata sebesar ? = 0.0000, dimana penerimaan pajak menentukan dan menyebabkan perubahan dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan dengan nilai chi-squared sebesar 7.291364 dan probabilitas riil ? = 0.0632 maka pertumbuhan ekonomi menentukan penerimaan pajak. Selanjutnya, menggunakan regresi ordinary least squares (OLS) yang lolos uji hipotesis klasik menganalisis pengaruh tax ratio terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, dengan nilai t-statistik sebesar -2.952949 dan probabilitas sangat nyata sebesar 0.0057, sedangkan t-statistik kuadrat tax ratio sebesar 2.540621 dengan probabilitas sangat nyata sebesar 0,0158. Bahwa pengaruh tax ratio terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi bersifat kontraktif, namun jika sudah mencapai nilai tax ratio tertentu, yakni sebesar 15,29% maka peningkatan tax ratio akan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Nilai tax ratio sebesar 15,29% merupakan tax ratio ideal dalam menciptakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang optimal. Selain itu, kurva hubungan penerimaan pajak dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sangat berbeda dengan bentuk kurva Laffer yang berbentuk huruf ?U? terbalik, kurva Laffer Indonesia cenderung datar dan melengkung ke bawah. Kata Kunci: Penerimaan pajak, pertumbuhan ekonomi, endogen, kausalitas, VAR, Toda-Yamamoto, tax ratio, kurva Laffer, Indonesia. ABSTRACT Analyzes the nature of the causal relationship between tax revenues and economic growth in Indonesia in the form of an endogenous growth economic model. Causality analysis in this study uses a multivariate setup through a vector autoregression approach with the Toda?Yamamoto method as a causality test. Using time series data for 1983?2021, research findings show that the control variables: capital, labor, FDI, government spending, inflation, and exchange rates, capture the relationship between tax revenues and economic growth. The results of the causality test using the Toda-Yamamoto method show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between tax revenues and economic growth, with a chi-squared value of 78.96730 and a very real probability of ? = 0.0000, where tax revenues determine and cause changes and increase economic growth, whereas with a chi-squared value of 7.291364 and the real probability ? = 0.0632, of economic growth determines tax revenues. Next, using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression which passes the classic hypothesis test to analyze the effect of the tax ratio on economic growth, with t-statistic value of -2.952949 and a very real probability of 0.0057, while the squared tax ratio t-statistic is 2.540621 with a very real probability real is 0.0158. That the influence of the tax ratio on economic growth is contractionary, but if it reaches a certain tax ratio value, namely 15.29%, an increase in the tax ratio will encourage economic growth. The tax ratio value of 15.29% is the ideal tax ratio in creating optimal economic growth in Indonesia. Apart from that, the curve of the relationship between tax revenues and Indonesia's economic growth is very different from the shape of the Laffer curve which is in the shape of an inverted "U", the Indonesian Laffer curve tends to be flat and curves downwards. Keywords: Tax revenues, economic growth, endogenous, causality, VAR, Toda?Yamamoto, tax ratio, Laffer curve, Indonesia.
ABSTRAK Menganalisis sifat hubungan sebab akibat antara penerimaan pajak dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam bentuk model ekonomi pertumbuhan endogen. Analisis kausalitas pada penelitian ini menggunakan pengaturan multivariat melalui pendekatan vektor autoregression dengan metode Toda?Yamamoto sebagai uji kausalitas. Dengan menggunakan data time series pada tahun 1983?2021, temuan penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel kontrol: modal, tenaga kerja, FDI, belanja pemerintah, inflasi, dan nilai tukar, menjelaskan hubungan kausalitas penerimaan pajak dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hasil uji kausalitas dengan metode Toda-Yamamoto menunjukkan terdapat hubungan kausalitas dua arah antara penerimaan pajak dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi, dengan nilai chi-squared sebesar 78.96730 dan probabilitas sangat nyata sebesar ? = 0.0000, dimana penerimaan pajak menentukan dan menyebabkan perubahan dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan dengan nilai chi-squared sebesar 7.291364 dan probabilitas riil ? = 0.0632 maka pertumbuhan ekonomi menentukan penerimaan pajak. Selanjutnya, menggunakan regresi ordinary least squares (OLS) yang lolos uji hipotesis klasik menganalisis pengaruh tax ratio terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, dengan nilai t-statistik sebesar -2.952949 dan probabilitas sangat nyata sebesar 0.0057, sedangkan t-statistik kuadrat tax ratio sebesar 2.540621 dengan probabilitas sangat nyata sebesar 0,0158. Bahwa pengaruh tax ratio terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi bersifat kontraktif, namun jika sudah mencapai nilai tax ratio tertentu, yakni sebesar 15,29% maka peningkatan tax ratio akan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Nilai tax ratio sebesar 15,29% merupakan tax ratio ideal dalam menciptakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang optimal. Selain itu, kurva hubungan penerimaan pajak dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sangat berbeda dengan bentuk kurva Laffer yang berbentuk huruf ?U? terbalik, kurva Laffer Indonesia cenderung datar dan melengkung ke bawah. Kata Kunci: Penerimaan pajak, pertumbuhan ekonomi, endogen, kausalitas, VAR, Toda-Yamamoto, tax ratio, kurva Laffer, Indonesia. ABSTRACT Analyzes the nature of the causal relationship between tax revenues and economic growth in Indonesia in the form of an endogenous growth economic model. Causality analysis in this study uses a multivariate setup through a vector autoregression approach with the Toda?Yamamoto method as a causality test. Using time series data for 1983?2021, research findings show that the control variables: capital, labor, FDI, government spending, inflation, and exchange rates, capture the relationship between tax revenues and economic growth. The results of the causality test using the Toda-Yamamoto method show that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between tax revenues and economic growth, with a chi-squared value of 78.96730 and a very real probability of ? = 0.0000, where tax revenues determine and cause changes and increase economic growth, whereas with a chi-squared value of 7.291364 and the real probability ? = 0.0632, of economic growth determines tax revenues. Next, using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression which passes the classic hypothesis test to analyze the effect of the tax ratio on economic growth, with t-statistic value of -2.952949 and a very real probability of 0.0057, while the squared tax ratio t-statistic is 2.540621 with a very real probability real is 0.0158. That the influence of the tax ratio on economic growth is contractionary, but if it reaches a certain tax ratio value, namely 15.29%, an increase in the tax ratio will encourage economic growth. The tax ratio value of 15.29% is the ideal tax ratio in creating optimal economic growth in Indonesia. Apart from that, the curve of the relationship between tax revenues and Indonesia's economic growth is very different from the shape of the Laffer curve which is in the shape of an inverted "U", the Indonesian Laffer curve tends to be flat and curves downwards. Keywords: Tax revenues, economic growth, endogenous, causality, VAR, Toda?Yamamoto, tax ratio, Laffer curve, Indonesia.
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